We are in the thick of Global Warming and its getting worse

We are in the thick of Global Warming. I think across the planet if you asked anyone in their 40's or older if  the summers are hotter than usual a common theme would be nicer weather. Even as we complain almost daily about the weather these days it seems that not much is being done urgently enough to reverse the situation. Much of this is simply that culture is hard to change, the matter is we've never had to bother about taking care of our planet's weather. Until recently the weather was just something we lived with. Its never easy to adopt a new ideas or habit until situation forces our hand. I think such as situation will be upon us by the next decade–the 2020s. Climate conditions are going to deteriorate faster than we can predict as Global Warming is exasperated by the 'double whammy' conditions. The double whammy are exponential multiplier effects that feed a situation to make it get worse faster than expected. If you like some optimism, its like starting the day on the right foot and seeing it get even better as the day progresses or vice versa.

The last year Global Warming got worse with the hottest year on record after getting a lift from El Nino. There are many more double whammy situations on the cards. Droughts and fires are killing trees even as we curtail our addiction to felling the gentle green giants for timber. I still see trucks carrying huge logs from primary rain forests on the highway, its so sad to see these botanical hearses pass by. They are worse than human hearses since every giant tree cut is one less super efficient carbon dioxide scrubber out of action. Last year the planet also lost a lot of forest to fires during South East Asian haze crisis. El Nino is also going to cause a lot of coral death this year–another efficient carbon sink. We continue to eat fish from the oceans in the billions of tons, not only is this habit becoming less sustainable with each year, we are also killing baby fish and animals with plastic. As fish population in the oceans reduce the efficiency of the seas to sink carbon gets less.

Even as the world celebrated the historic COP21 agreement to limit the global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius by cutting down on fossil fuels, the planet is becoming less efficient in absorbing excess carbon dioxide because all across the planet natural ecosystems have been heavily disrupted. Increasing reports of animals becoming extinct in the wild should concern us very much because they are the red flag that indicate the ecosystems are deteriorating. So even as we rush to reduce carbon emissions, the systems to absorb excess carbon we will still be emitting is also becoming less and less efficient. The binding agreements in COP21 will make little difference to the course of global warming if we don't do anything to restore ecosystems.

It is obvious that we have the technology necessary to withstand even the worst global warming scenario. Humans will prevail. But it seems nobody cares what the world is going to look like when they step outside their expensive weather conditioning cocoon and the cost we are going to pay in human lives to bear with global warming. We can still return things to how they used to be less the species that are extinct or critically endangered but that means we have to accept some inconvenience. That's what it will take to turn around the double whammy conditions that are accelerating global warming. But our problem is habit. We are creatures of habit and habit is hard to change. 

The Environment of Low Oil Prices

2012 and 2013 were economically fabulous years for Malaysia. Since Malaysia imports most of its public consumption and industrial equipment the Malaysian ringgit's strength against the dollar that was oscillating between 2.9 to 3.2 MYR to USD was highly celebrated. However since 2014 Malaysia has been on a downward spiral economically. 2014 was the year our economy was set for a boost in tourist spending as a Visit Malaysia Year which unfortunately turned sour with the loss of two Malaysian Airline planes. 2015 dragged down the ringgit to new lows as the MYR sank to more than 4 ringgit to the USD as commodity prices tumbled. 2016 is going to be another dismal year for the economy as the price of petrol stays sunk as around 30 USD a barrel.

Despite this environment economically I am fairing quite well. The main reason for this is that I changed most of my ringgits to Singapore Dollars when the ringgit was flying high in 2012 and 2013. I even advised many of my friends and family to do the same, to diversify their cash holding into other currencies, even the USD which was weak then. A few followed the advise and are quite grateful, most however ignored it. In 2012 and 2013, it concerned me that the Malaysian economy was being artificially propped up by big bond sales that was mainly being used to fund new transportation infrastructure in the Klang Valley. I regard public spending on transportation infrastructure projects as national service which is indirectly profitable by making connectivity more efficient in the country. So when the Malaysian government took into account their bond sale to fund the massive 50 billion ringgit KL MRT and LRT projects as part of the countries GDP growth, I got apprehensive about the rising ringgit. It seemed that whomever was forecasting the strength of Malaysia's economy was being very generous with the countries actual growth. One of the Finance Minister deputies even went on to brag about Malaysia's sterling GDP growth by adding figures of government cash handout to lower income citizens as part of consumer spending strength. That's like a failing bank saying they are outperforming expectations after receiving a generous bailout.

The fact is the Malaysian government has been in the habit of spending tons of money without care for returns. Accountability is not a word that is important when it comes to the National Budget. Just spend and spend. The following year spend more without taking into account what worked and what did not. Unfortunately the Malaysian economy's resilience to an unfettered spending habit is being reined in by tumbling commodity prices. Crude oil and palm oil prices are causing much consternation among the nations politicians and economist. Their big question is when are the prices going to rise again? But I think the real question to be asked is when the government revenue going to be properly accounted for the result of spending. The ringgit is tanking because the country is leaking money and nobody cares to stop the habit. Overseas undergraduate scholarships, an education system that is deteriorating, transportation infrastructure that cause more problems than solving them, a social environment that rewards political ball-carrying than actual productive performance and a government that can't keep its hands out of business.

Malaysia's ringgit new normal is going to remain about 4 to the USD before it tumbles to 4.5 in a few years. That's because even if commodity prices rise again wasteful spending is not going to stop, so the national debt that has lost all its buffers is going to rise with population growth and drying resources such as crude oil. So if you are betting on the ringgit to rise sell it when the ringgit crosses 3.8 to the USD.

Malaysia's Education Conundrum

In 2016 Malaysia is going to spend over 41 billion ringgit on on education. With a national annual budget that hovers around 250 billion ringgit Malaysia's education spending is among the highest in the region. There is more higher educational institutions, both public and private in Malaysia than in the rest of Southeast Asia. Yet many Malaysians still desire to study abroad, choosing UK and the US to further higher education. If many Malaysian parents cannot afford UK or US, there is Australia, New Zealand, Singpore, Taiwan and India. There are good reasons many parents choose to educate their children outside Malaysia. Chief among them is Malaysia's lacklustre public universities. So instead of spending a lot of money in private universities in Malaysia that function more as schools instead of research and development institutions, parents choose to pay more so their children can get an education that is considered better than what is available in Malaysia. This is a strange conundrum for a country that has been open and exposed to science and technology since its inception six decades ago.

As early as the 60's the government of Malaysia has spent a lot of money on education, including sending students overseas for higher education. Yet after all this time and probably trillions of ringgit spent none of Malaysia's the public universities are know as world class research institutions. Malaysia has a lot of resources–biological and geological that have potential to be developed into new materials, technology and pharmaceutics by curious professors. Yet Malaysia's economy still depends on selling commodities and manufacturing with foreign technology. Research and development is weak if not almost non-existent in Malaysia despite much political weight behind making Malaysia a world class education hub.

So what is going to happen to 41 billion ringgit on education this year? Spending to keep the same old machinery going, with more spending on research by foreigners for recommendations on how to boost Malaysia's world education standing–a worthless annual effort. In the foreseeable future Malaysia's public education system will continue to deteriorate, probably setting new benchmarks for how much money can be spent on making the countries education standards worse instead of better. Cheers to Malaysia's 2016 budget revision!