As the US elections gets into its most intense leg to the finish line I believe the one person who can actually take it easy and coast along is Hillary Clinton because what matters most now is gearing for the get-out-the-vote ground game. In this game Clinton's campaign is leaps and bounds ahead of Trump. Its the volunteers knocking on doors, speaking to friends, helping register new voters and ferrying apathetic voters to polling stations that matter.
Trump is relying too heavily on the Republican National Congress (RNC) to do its ground game which is Trump's biggest mistake next to his foolish overtures to court the minority Black and Hispanic votes. Hispanic and Black voters are going to turn out in record numbers thanks to the anger Trump has stoked in them. Clinton doesn't even need a ground game to get them to the booth, they are primed and ready to give Trump and his White Supremacist followers a sound thrashing. The RNC offices cannot be focused enough to maintain Trump campaign's legwork with their work cut out to support their down ballot candidates plus Trump cannot depend on the loyalty of these ground staff as some might not actually like him.
For all the talk about a tight race in the polls between Clinton and Trump they come with a disclaimer that the polls don't reflect what actually happens on election day. If anything the polls are just fodder for the media to maintain their audience where a tight gripping race is much better than calling it a done deal, its just business. Media pays pollsters to do polls which in turn gives material for the media to turn to headlines. In 2008 and 2012 the same thing happened as the media called a tight race between Obama and McCain and later Romney until election day. Finally Obama won hands down with the minorities carrying him to the finish line, its going to be no different this time.
In Malaysia we also know that the size of the crowd in a political rally is no indication or at most a very unreliable measure of election results. Many people go to political rallies to be entertained, and Trump provides that for his crowd very well, with no intention of even voting. He certainly has a fan base who are vitalised when he is around but what happens when he is not around when message becomes more important than personality. Is Trump's message powerful enough to motivate those spectacle seekers to the polling booth on election day? It will really boil down to Trump campaign's ground game which is at best tepid.
I thought Clinton's labelling half of Trump's support base deplorable was an excellent political move. The fallout from that gave the large racist and extremist elements of Trump's support an opening to expose itself which rendered Trump's overtures into the Hispanic and Black community redundant. In a race for 130 million votes Trump's fan base is only 13.3 million people who voted for him in the Republican primaries but altogether more Republicans voted against Trump instead of for him, Trump was just the least unpopular candidate who fractured the Republican party and caused most of his opponents to not endorse him. Clinton beat Sanders about 16 million to 12 million with Sanders openly backing Clinton even if only begrudgingly as an affront to keep Trump from the Presidency.
Clinton is standing on a much bigger support base with a unified party behind her while Trump has doubled down on the exclusivity of his fan base with the hope that a deeply fractured Republican Party will do the work his campaign needs to do for him. The real story is unfolding in the campaign offices but for the media there are three debates do exploit and gravity defying polls to analyse until election day.
Trump is relying too heavily on the Republican National Congress (RNC) to do its ground game which is Trump's biggest mistake next to his foolish overtures to court the minority Black and Hispanic votes. Hispanic and Black voters are going to turn out in record numbers thanks to the anger Trump has stoked in them. Clinton doesn't even need a ground game to get them to the booth, they are primed and ready to give Trump and his White Supremacist followers a sound thrashing. The RNC offices cannot be focused enough to maintain Trump campaign's legwork with their work cut out to support their down ballot candidates plus Trump cannot depend on the loyalty of these ground staff as some might not actually like him.
For all the talk about a tight race in the polls between Clinton and Trump they come with a disclaimer that the polls don't reflect what actually happens on election day. If anything the polls are just fodder for the media to maintain their audience where a tight gripping race is much better than calling it a done deal, its just business. Media pays pollsters to do polls which in turn gives material for the media to turn to headlines. In 2008 and 2012 the same thing happened as the media called a tight race between Obama and McCain and later Romney until election day. Finally Obama won hands down with the minorities carrying him to the finish line, its going to be no different this time.
In Malaysia we also know that the size of the crowd in a political rally is no indication or at most a very unreliable measure of election results. Many people go to political rallies to be entertained, and Trump provides that for his crowd very well, with no intention of even voting. He certainly has a fan base who are vitalised when he is around but what happens when he is not around when message becomes more important than personality. Is Trump's message powerful enough to motivate those spectacle seekers to the polling booth on election day? It will really boil down to Trump campaign's ground game which is at best tepid.
I thought Clinton's labelling half of Trump's support base deplorable was an excellent political move. The fallout from that gave the large racist and extremist elements of Trump's support an opening to expose itself which rendered Trump's overtures into the Hispanic and Black community redundant. In a race for 130 million votes Trump's fan base is only 13.3 million people who voted for him in the Republican primaries but altogether more Republicans voted against Trump instead of for him, Trump was just the least unpopular candidate who fractured the Republican party and caused most of his opponents to not endorse him. Clinton beat Sanders about 16 million to 12 million with Sanders openly backing Clinton even if only begrudgingly as an affront to keep Trump from the Presidency.
Clinton is standing on a much bigger support base with a unified party behind her while Trump has doubled down on the exclusivity of his fan base with the hope that a deeply fractured Republican Party will do the work his campaign needs to do for him. The real story is unfolding in the campaign offices but for the media there are three debates do exploit and gravity defying polls to analyse until election day.
