Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Being blissfully oblivious of global warming is still ok for now, so we think.

This is how we live our lives. There is just too many tasks to do in a day to seriously consider something other than the run of the mill chores unless its an emergency. As far as global warming is concerned for most of us here in Malaysia its complaining about how horribly hot it is these days as the the day temperature regularly climbs above 40ºC. Few days ago I used the IR thermometer I got for my baby and it showed the air temperature just outside the house at 42ºC! The ground temperature was worse, it was above 50ºC. The thermometer displayed 'Hi', its indication that the temperature was above thermometer's capability to measure–its after all designed to measure human temperature. Technically we are still in our not so hot and super wet season in Malaysia, so the heat is  a matter to complain. Global warming effects has yet to reach emergency proportions that will make it require our serious attention. When its this hot we just turn on the air conditioning. In the 80's air conditioning in homes were a luxury. Most homes were fine with fans but in less than two decades it has become a necessity during the day and increasingly the night too. The other problem caused by global warming that is a constant here are very heavy but short rains. Nowadays even short downpours cause flash floods here and there on the roads, creating choking traffic jams. I've learnt from experts in the telecoms industry that this is because rain droplets are thicker now than they used to be. Its estimated that the amount rain that used to fall in 3 days can now come down in a half an hour! If you are working in Kuala Lumpur is to get home before the rains or hours can be lost stuck in traffic.

Global warming has definitely reached the nuisance level but for most all of us it is still not critical enough to demand for electric vehicles and green power plants. When we turn on the juice to the game console what matters is that we have power, what produces the power and its implications to our future is something we choose to be oblivious of. The same when we go to the pump for gasoline.  Life goes on and after all the sea is still not at our door step. I don't wish to preach to anyone because I am also guilty of the same trap of convenience. My problem is that I am consternated by my inability to do anything about it except to make sure I recycle as much as I can and I know this effort far from enough.

I have known about global warming since I was in high school in the 80's. I was concerned then but as far as the world of my peers for whom WWF mattered because it was wrestling instead of the World Wildlife Fund it was as far from their radar as Pluto is and it seems it still is. More than three decades on I have relented from being concerned about global warming to preparing for the changing future ahead. When I hear of my friends buying homes within a few kilometres of the sea or near deltas convinced of the promise of property gains I realise the danger of ignorance. I am certainly not going to bother investing in any land that is less than 50 meters above sea level.  Though the worst case scenario of 80 meters sea level rise is unlikely by the turn of the century, a 10 to 20 meters rise is more than likely and it will probably happen faster than scientist anticipate as we are in a period of accelerated warming.

10 to 20 meters, about 30 to 60 feet of sea level rise can happen if most of the glaciers on mountain tops melt, Greenland loses most of its ice and Antarctica loses more than its predicted share of glaciers. Scientists are discovering that ice melt rates during summers in the north and south are faster than their models had previously predicted. Many countries like Kiribati and the Maldives may have less than 30 years before they have to be abandoned.

Our problem with global warming is that its just not so apparent yet. When the days are hot, we can just as well say its been this hot in the past too and when it floods we can also say its flooded terribly before too. Assumptions based on anecdotes can be misleading because subjective experience can easily outweigh objective data–its how Donald Trump is hoodwinking his fan base with his notions of the truth to become the President of USA. But the truth is extreme weather has been breaking new ground since the turn of the century though it doesn't happen everyday. Incremental uptick of nuisance weather is still tolerable if it happens only once in a while. Tough recently we got a taste of horrible weather that lasted weeks when we were blanketed by thick haze for weeks, but then again right now its clear skies, nothing to complain about until the haze which will certainly come back again hits us. Its been going on like this for years not just in Malaysia but everywhere else.

The European Union is so far the only group of nations that are actively reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and they have now been at it for more than a decade. Their model in running on renewable energy (though not at 100% yet) should be an example for the rest of us.  However with China now the biggest contributor of greenhouse gases and the temptation of cheap development in an environment of cheap crude oil curbing global warming is no less an uphill battle than it was three deades ago. Perhaps until the sea comes knocking at our doorsteps we will still be ok with the status quo I guess.

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